Recognizing the challenges to traditional approaches to economic measurement—among others, declining survey response rates, the growing economic significance of hard-to-measure digital services, and ...

China’s unprecedented expansion of higher education in 1999, increased annual college enrollment from 1 million to 9.6 million by 2020. We trace the global ripple effects of that expansion by ...

In 2018, the US launched a trade war with China, an abrupt departure from its historical leadership in integrating global markets. By late 2019, the US had imposed tariffs on roughly $350 billion of ...

We use a dynamic trade and reallocation model with downward nominal wage rigidities to quantitatively assess the economic consequences of recent U.S. tariff increases on imports from Mexico, Canada, ...

We study the role played by Chinese state–owned firms during the US–China trade war. Based on measures constructed from Chinese firm–level customs microdata, we show that the presence of state–owned ...

The negative effect of distance on bilateral trade is one of the most robust findings in international trade. However, the underlying causes of this negative relationship are less well understood.

Financial repression can be used to avoid a government default when fiscal policy is constrained. We present a model showing that optimal financial repression progresses through successive stages with ...

The US economy has undergone a number of puzzling changes in recent decades. Large firms now account for a greater share of economic activity, new firms are being created at a slower rate, and workers ...

Almost exactly two years ago COVID-19 spread to the United States. Following the federalism model, the 50 states and their governors and legislators made many of their own pandemic policy choices to ...

We use a controlled experiment to show that ability and belief calibration jointly determine the benefits of working with Artificial Intelligence (AI). AI improves performance more for people with low ...

We review historical budget trends and basic fiscal processes. We provide new estimates of the budget outlook, incorporating the recently enacted One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), and finding that ...

We study the long-run effects of the first wave of U.S. banking market integration on capital mobility and manufacturing productivity. Using newly digitized bank and branch balance sheet data matched ...